Looking for a Housing Signal? Here are a Few of our Housing Indicators we Watch
Mortgage Delinquencies:
We have watched a steady increase that has mirrored unemployment for the last 5 years. It appears that things are finally beginning to taper off; at last! The number we would like to see the most for the upcoming year is a dip below 7%. That will get everyone excited and should signal a major slowdown in foreclosures.
Unemployment:
This is a key number for us and is something we talk about daily. I still cant find any history book that a full recovery and bullish home prices have occurred without job creation. This indicator has a direct correlation to almost every indicator we watch.
Household Income:
Once again, people need jobs and growth if we are going to see this indicator advance. However, the current levels need to see a turn up if we are going to work ourselves into a strong and meaningful advancement higher in home prices.
Absorption Rate:
We like to say we eat, sleep, and breathe absorption rate around our office. As a matter of fact, I cant for the life of me figure out why this is one of the least talked about indicators in a real estate office? This indicator tells us how long it is going to take to sell a property, what price is going to return the highest result in the quickest amount of time and overall tells us what the overall health is in any given market.
The factor you see on the right is done on an annual basis, however, we choose to focus on a six month analysis instead of the twelve month.
Overall Transactions:
Transactions is basically an indicator for activity. It also helps us determine whether or not there is any demand. What we like most about this number for 2011 is that we appear to have seen the brunt of the major decline and the wild swings and have now began to see some steady demand come in to the market. We are wildly optimistic on via this indicator.
It appears that the massive supply that we saw hit the market in the middle of the 2010 season has been eliminated and we are sitting at a level that is what we call “Par”, meaning once we get to the 6 month level we will have a neutral market. Anything less than 6 months inventory is a sellers market and anything more is a buyers market. Our stance for now is that we are expecting the banks to hit us one more time with an influx of foreclosure property just before the spring selling season, which will put some pressure on the prices, but this is our buying signal and we believe will be the catalyst to a potential bounce in housing prices in late 2012.
Interest Rates:
We continue to see rates hover around the lows in hopes that it will keep buying demand from dissipating, however we see more refinancing than anything else. Our hope is rates will begin to tick up since that seams to bring in buyers that don’t want to miss the boat.
Housing Starts Vs. Unemployment:
This is a very interesting chart on the right. It is one that highlights our theory that we believe fits the current scenario. As unemployment begins to fall housing starts will rise. The question is whether or not the builders start building first or will they wait for better signs for more stability to come?
New Homes vs. U.S. Recessions:
Lastly, take a look at the chart on the right. Notice that for every recession we have encountered the result was a big dip in home sales. If we can begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the global economic catastrophes then I see a major snap back and a sudden surge in demand. Its time to start moving up in 2012!





































